11/02/09

How does warm surface water in the Pacific Ocean called El Niño, affect weather here in southern Idaho? For starters, it shoves the jet stream, which carries winter rain and snow into our area, further north into Canada.

KMVT Meteorologist Adam Colpack says, “We're going to have less than average amounts of probably rain and snow, at least that's what's predicted right now with a strong El Niño. And also it could mean milder than average temperatures overall for the winter season for the Magic Valley, and in fact the entire state of Idaho.

Colpack says the northerly shift in the jet stream also means that high mountains in California could see plenty of snow this winter.

In previous years mild winters here have occasionally led to more insects during the summer; but the key to irrigation next year could be spring rains in southern Idaho.

“The springtime can be very variable around here. If we get some pretty good rain showers or pretty good systems moving in, that can sometimes be the wild card around here during the spring. So that's going to be the 'what if' scenario.”

The reservoir system in south eastern Idaho is 58 percent full right now, and local water managers expect the reservoirs to fill completely this winter. But Colpack says it's possible that some ski resorts may have to depend on being able to make artificial snow – if Mother Nature doesn't cooperate.

“Actually overall, we have had a very relatively wetter than normal season so far, especially from what happened last spring. But the way things are going right now, it does look like overall for the winter season we will be drying things out.”