Written by: Brandon Redmond
So while we may be experiencing some rain and snow, a much stronger weather system is taking shape in the Carribean. Tropical Storm Sandy continues to strengthen. Currently she has winds of 50 mph but she will likely become a hurricane at some point on Wednesday. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for Jamaica and for Eastern portions of Cuba. Tropical Storm Watches are also in effect for portions of the Bahamas.
By Friday, Sandy will be located somewhere in the Bahamas and off the East Coast of Florida. The last several National Hurricane Tracks have been getting closer and closer to the East Coast of Florida, something we'll be watching closely.
Sandy gets real interesting by this weekend and early next week as the track of Sandy becomes quite uncertain. One of our more reliable forecast models, the European, is adamant on taking Sandy into the Middle Atlantic or Northeastern United Coast as a fairly strong storm.
Yesterday a lot of the forecast and model guidance was taking Sandy out to sea, out into the Atlantic. As of this afternoon, much of our forecast guidance has shifted the track of Sandy towards the Northeast Coast, similar to the European. Here's a look at a composite map of all of our forecast guidance.
A track towards the Middle Atlantic or Northeast Coast could result in a perfect storm type of track, as shown by the European Forecast Model. A very strong cold front and low pressure system will be moving East out of the Great Lakes States and will be bringing a ton of cold air with it. The European and several of our forecast models have Sandy merging with this regular weather system and colliding with all of the cold air. An important thing to remember is that we are still a week away from when this storm will be getting close to the Northeast and a lot could change. Everything would also have to come together perfectly in order for the "perfect storm scenario" to come together. But if the two storms did collide, a storm of significant if not historical proportions would be possibles for portions of the Northeastern and Middle Atlantic Coast.
The European Model is one of several models showing that perfect storm scenario with a very strong system making landfall over Long Island.
No matter what happens, it looks like heavy rain and gusty winds could impact much of the Northeast Coast next week. We'll be tracking Sandy closely and we'll have updates over the next several days.
Chief Meteorologist Brian Neudorff will have a blog update later this evening about our local weather! Have a great evening - Brandon