Now that Thanksgiving is in the rear view mirror everyone is focusing on Christmas. And aside from wanting to know if they made the naughty or nice list everyone wants to know if we'll have a white Christmas in Southern Idaho. I think the kid in MOST of us would love to wake up on Christmas morning and see this happening outside of our window:
As a meteorologist I do have to admit - it's still a little too far out to say if we will or not with any shred confidence. BUT, after doing some digging I can share some projections based on historical weather data.
The Boise division of the National Weather Service gave me access to 96 years worth of Christmas Day weather observations. Here's what I found:
- The most snow the Twin Falls area has ever seen on Christmas Day is 4 inches which fell back in 1965.
(Basically we haven't seen a big Christmas Day snowfall in more than four decades..)
- The average amount snowfall we see on Christmas Day is .3 inches.
- The probability of snow falling on Christmas Day based on historical weather performance is 18%
- The probability that there will be snow on the ground on Christmas Day is 24%
And last but not least - the last time we've seen any snow fly on Christmas Day was one decade ago in 2002 when the airport recorded a trace of total snowfall.
As you can see history is not on our side, but we have several things going for us:
1. All three of the meteorologists in the KMVT Weather Department believe this winter will be an active one.
2. Accuweather.com is predicting this:
December is likely to feature above-normal warmth across much of the entire West. However, from late December into January, the team expects a transition where cold fronts will drop farther south along the West Coast, reaching northern and central California. This transition should bring temperatures back near normal, away from the interior Southwest.
The famed "Pineapple Express," a phenomenon that occurs when a strong, persistent flow of tropical moisture sets up from the Hawaiian Islands to the West Coast of the U.S., could develop for a time this winter. This phenomenon often leads to excessive rain and incredible snow events.
3. When it comes to getting snow when we want it we have the secret weapon.. Brian Neudorff! Last January he did this snow dance and we got snow the next day.
If all else fails Brandon Redmond and I will force him to do it again on Christmas Eve!
Meteorologist, Nick Kosir